On 16 September 2025, The Banking Scene payments community gathered at De Warande, Brussels, for the annual Payments BBQ Night, this time under the theme “Payments in 2030.” For the fifth time, we repeated the usual recipe for success: grilled food with hot debates on the future of the money movement. We invited six experts to share their unfiltered vision of the future, an appetiser for much more food for thought throughout the evening.

The conversations were shaped by:

• Saar Carre, Director of Payments at Febelfin, who brought the retail banking and regulatory perspective;
• Bruno Mellado, Global Head of Payments and Receivables at BNP Paribas, focusing on wholesale and cross-border flows;
• Fabrice Denèle, Vice President, Payments Partnerships at Groupe BPCE, who offered a retail bank perspective with a European sovereignty lens on wallets and regulation;
• Peter van Hees, Innovation Manager at KBC Bank, who painted a provocative picture of a post-app, agent-driven future;
• Samantha Emery, Non-Executive Director, former Deputy Chair of Swift, and former Payments Industry and Development Director at Lloyds Banking Group;
• Jörn-Jacob Röber, Head of EU Policy at Digital Currencies Governance Group.

Together, they outlined a payments landscape that is both full of hopeful progress and real threats, and they challenged the industry to prepare for an entirely new interface in the decade ahead.

We had a great audience of over 100 people, and if you were there or not, you have the opportunity to learn from these key lessons below. And because it was the fifth anniversary of this event, I decided to break this article into 3 pieces:

• The 5 most promising predictions for banks
• The 5 most scary predictions for banks
• The 5 key lessons for banks to prepare for 2030

The Most Promising Predictions

1) The end of cheques

I confess: my first job involved application manager cheques at KBC Bank. I can’t say I’m proud of it, but I do relate to this prediction. Cheques have been a symbol of outdated infrastructure and an operational nightmare for decades. They are expensive to process, vulnerable to fraud, and deeply inefficient in a digital-first economy, with their inefficiency increasing over time as overhead costs are spread across smaller volumes. By 2030, their complete disappearance would not only free up resources but also serve as a clear symbolic victory for banks: the industry has finally shed one of its most persistent relics.

Although... hope for their disappearance was much higher than the confidence in this prediction.

2) Instant becomes just “payments.”

Today, consumers and corporates still hear about “standard” vs “instant” payments, with cut-off times and weekend lags. New regulations force more volumes over the instant payment rails, igniting all kinds of conversations, from fraud risks to potential instant bank runs and everything in between.

By 2030, these distinctions between “standard” and “instant” should vanish. Payments will be instant, 24/7/365, across Europe, and beyond. For banks, this removes a constant reputational pain point: no more excuses about “banking hours,” and no more being compared unfavourably to fintechs who already deliver real-time experiences.

Although… perhaps also higher expectations to fulfil. Remember the Easter Rabbit Analogy in the conversation? In the future, we will be able to send money at Easter, just as we would on any other day, and no rabbit will be able to block that!

3) Transparency in cross-border

Cross-border payments remain plagued by opaque FX spreads, unclear fees, and unexpected deductions. The prediction is that by 2030, corporates and consumers will see the full picture upfront: the cost, the rate, and the delivery time. This levels the playing field with fintechs like Wise and helps banks win back trust as reliable, predictable partners for international flows.

Although, experience teaches us that opacity has long been profitable for some players, changing that will take more than technology. The technology is there, will sentiment follow by 2030?

4) Global standards convergence

The adoption of ISO 20022 and harmonised APIs aims to establish a single common language for payments worldwide. This results in fewer failed integrations, enhanced interoperability, and simpler scaling of services across different markets. For banks, it diminishes the hidden costs caused by fragmentation and enables them to build upon existing infrastructure, rather than expending resources on translating messages between incompatible systems.

I can only hope for this, although… haven’t we predicted this before over the past 30 years?

5) Fraud contained through collaboration

Fraud will not disappear by 2030, but it should be far better contained. Regulation is pushing banks toward stronger legal tools, broader powers to block suspicious transactions, and structured data sharing across sectors. The fight against fraud will no longer rest solely on individual institutions but on a wider ecosystem where banks, telcos, and platforms combine forces.

At the same time, the rise of AI-driven scams demands equally advanced detection models, and the looming threat of quantum computing requires proactive adoption of new cryptography standards.

By 2030, the industry should be able to stay ahead of fraudsters instead of constantly playing catch-up.

The Scary Predictions

1) Big Tech wallet dominance

Apple Pay and similar wallets already dominate mobile payments, with some markets seeing over 90% of volumes flowing through one provider. By 2030, this trend could entrench itself further, leaving banks in a position where they are mere back-end pipes. The risk is high fees, no access to valuable customer data, and a complete loss of the direct relationship banks have worked to preserve.

2) Agentic disintermediation

Artificial intelligence is paving the way for a future where customers delegate tasks to digital agents that make decisions and execute payments on their behalf. While this promises convenience, it also threatens banks with invisibility: if agents choose the provider, banks may end up paying to be “discoverable.”

This evolution changes the very nature of banking. The customer interface moves from human taps and clicks to autonomous, goal-driven systems. For banks, the risk is once again being disintermediated by platforms, but the opportunity is to become the “trusted financial self” in a world of agents: the one agent customers rely on to ensure their finances remain secure, compliant, and aligned with their interests.

Unless banks claim a role in this intent-driven layer, they risk being excluded from the next frontier of customer interaction.

Anecdotally, Google announced a new Agent Payments Protocol just one day later, further highlighting the timeliness of this conversation.

3) Regulatory overreach

The prospect of a retail Digital Euro looms large. While it could be positioned as a complement to banks, there is a risk it becomes a costly parallel infrastructure that drains billions from the sector without strong consumer demand. By 2030, banks may find themselves financing regulatory ambitions that do little to enhance their competitiveness or relevance.

4) Continued fragmentation

Europe still operates with more than 20 different ACHs and, in many cases, relies on U.S. sanction lists for compliance. If this persists into 2030, sovereignty remains compromised and cross-border efficiency within the EU itself is stifled. Banks may remain trapped in a landscape where domestic initiatives thrive, but the larger European promise remains unfulfilled.

At the same time, competing projects around CBDCs, digital euro and stablecoins risk adding yet another layer of fragmentation if interoperability and common standards are not prioritised.

To make this concrete: two days after the BBQ Night, I read that Alipay’s Luxembourg licence opened the door to launching a euro stablecoin across the EU, a step that supported Ant Group’s goal to make cross-border payments faster and cheaper for its billion-plus users worldwide.

5) Post-quantum risks

Quantum computing poses a potential existential threat to today’s encryption methods. If banks do not prepare early with post-quantum cryptography, the entire payments infrastructure could be exposed to systemic vulnerabilities. This is a risk with uncertain timing but enormous impact, and it could arrive sooner than many anticipate.

Key Lessons for the Industry

1. Milestones ≠ differentiation. The end of checks and the rise of instant payments are essential, but they are only hygiene factors by 2030. Banks need to look beyond to maintain relevance.
2. Trust is the new currency. Transparency in cross-border payments and collaborative fraud prevention will be key to restoring and maintaining consumer confidence.
3. The interface battle is decisive. Wallets and agents are the new front lines. Whoever owns the interface owns the customer.
4. Engage with regulation early. Banks must push for proportional, enabling rules; otherwise, capital will be wasted on projects with limited strategic value.
5. Prepare now for the agentic era. Task-oriented financial agents should be tested and refined today, because by 2030, customers may expect them as standard.

Final Thought

2030 will not be the end of banks, but it will be the end of banking as we know it. The most hopeful predictions: instant-by-default, transparency, fraud containment, standards, and the death of cheques, sweep away today’s frustrations and reinforce trust. The scariest ones: wallet monopolies, agentic disintermediation, regulatory overreach, fragmentation, and quantum risk, remind us that the industry’s relevance is not guaranteed.

The decisive question for banks remains: Will they shape the next era of payments, or simply power it from the background?

We've had numerous conversations about the future of payments over the last week, from The Banking Scene BBQ Night to a roundtable Think Tank dinner on scams and fraud, and a few more in between.

We share our key takeaways (and Andrew has a bit of a rant about why banks have taken so long to address cross-border payments speed and cost problems) in this Director's Cut episode, which you can watch below or listen on your favourite podcast platform here.